02/20/19 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
Trade Alerts (1 of 3 SHOP, AAPL, FIT): $SHOP Sold all of our rolled over April $140/$160 vertical call spread @ $17.60 on today's intraday reversal. It's been a great ride as this call spread is now deeply in the money up about 235% on both of our January & April call spreads...but there really isn't much upside for us to continue to hold this since our MAX GAIN is capped @ $20.00.
So the runway for upside is very small relative to the risk of holding this thru a near-term pullback. It's time to let this go and get ready to reposition for new long entries on Shopify once this pullback fleshed itself out. SHOP has performed beautifully & has been on a non-stop tear ripping higher from it's $117 trough low of the correction, to new all time highs. In the last month alone SHOP has rallied 50 points. So it's only natural for buyer exhaustion to kick in after such a big move. Let this come in as gains are digested. We will be getting long once a solid reversal pattern builds after what we expect will be a near-term "buy the dip coupon."
01/16/19 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
Locking in a 235% Gain on this trade
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $SHOP sold our entire position solely on the January $140/$160 call spread here @ $16.75 for a 235% gain from our $5 entry.
It's currently hovering around the $17.50 value which is a great area to exit. Remember, with only 2 days left on the clock, it's no longer worth it to "hope" that SHOP will be @ or above $160 per share by this Friday's expiration....although there is zero sell signal on this bullish momentum...that's why we're still holding our rolled over April call-spread. We'll let that continue to appreciate as we have plenty of time from now till April for that to still mature/appreciate with the forecasted expectation that $SHOPify WANTS HIGHER. This whole sideways consolidation range has been building pressure since March of 2018, almost a full year. This pattern is a bottled pressure cooker waiting to explode above the $175 area. You can bet that when it does, it's on in a BIG BIG way to test the century $200 marker. The "text-book," measured-move breakout target for a breakout above the resistance ATH zone of $175 that can easily yield another +$55 point move higher from that breakout point = $230 we should see sometime mid to late 2019. We are strong buyers on SHOPIFY on the "NEXT RELATIVE PULLBACK." Although our AAPL Feb call spreads are in the gutter with regards to value...our other positions are still pulling the porto value higher yet. New Members do not be fooled that every trade here is a winning trade...we will have winners & losers here. Certainly the #1 goal is to make sure that your winners far outperform your losers.
10/29/18 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $SHOP bought the January $140/$160 vertical call spread here @ $5.00 for a 5% allocation size. This trade stands to make a 300% gain upon a retest of the $176 highs if SHOP closes at or above $160 UPON expiration.
Breakeven = $145.00 upon exp & max loss occurs if SHOP is @ or below $140 UPON expiration. We want to stake a long position in time to capture the next bull cycle which is likely to occur in anticipation of strong ecommerce sales on the back of the years strongest seasonal sales periods, most notably: Black Friday, Cyber Monday & the December Holiday sales period. Shopify makes a percentage of every ecommerce transaction a consumer makes on a Shopify website. Their YOY revenue grew by 58% in Q3, per their earnings event reported last Thursday https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17311742-shopify-announces-third-quarter-2018-financial-results
Their post earnings reaction saw a small pop then prices fizzled out. That's good for our entry as option premiums always see intrinsic value depreciation once all the eagerness settles down after earnings. But more than anything, our guide for this entry is largely predicated on the technical bullish divergence that is occurring on RSI where we have lower share price occurring on higher RSI + we also have a very deep oversold reading on the MACD indicator with a bullish bias starting to brew as this bullish crossover is starting to cultivate. The alignment of the 2 occurring right around the $120 to $130 area which has been the strongest support area since $123.88 marked the top of Sep 2017 & then the breakout of January 2018. We have 81 days till expiration on this trade
8/22/18 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $SHOP bought/added here @ $137.46 w/ a 2% allocation size. We have a double bottom setup & today SHOP is printing a "bullish engulfing" candle bar on the daily chart of this double bottom, which coincides with a revisit of the prior breakout zone.. This move however is happening on tepid volume. We want to see stronger volume than this so we'll be looking to add either lower or once we get follow thru on STRONG VOLUME. Common stock for now until we see more.
9/21/2017 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $SHOP sold entire allocation here @ $120.33 for a 31% gain since buy alert 1 and 12% gain since buy alert 2.
Even though today is a green day for SHOP, yesterdays big bearish engulfing bar will likely not go uncontested in this near term trend. Like, NVDA we're going to also take the bet that we can pick up SHOP lower back towards the $110 area. SHOP is definitely the name we want to be in for the Holiday kick off season...but again, we're mitigating some risk by reducing our exposure and raising some cash here.
8/24/2017 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
BotTrigger Trade Watch: $SHOP tomorrow we will be buying Shopify if it clears above $107. We're so far up +16% since our first buy alert back at the $91 area. So we want to be rewarding good behavior & adding to winners like Shopify that have the momentum tail-wind to their back. Just like we've done with numerous other trades where we've added to the winners: KITE up 44%, BABA up 88%, LNTH up 68% & MGTI up 87% since their first buy alert...we've added to all of those in several stages along their uptrend. We're especially interested to add more $SHOP here on the basis of this "U" formation breakout where $SHOP is clearing above this 100-day long congestion box. What's more, this move is occurring on accelerated, back-to-back volume increases. This is a strong indication that $SHOP is going higher from here. A pullback from here is to be expected as we've seen countless times before. A back-n-fill retracement/pullback would be a fine place to make the trade as well, but we will opt to take the trade above $107 near the close of the day tomorrow. We've also seen plenty of times however where those pullbacks don't happen after a "U" formation breakout. They breakout... and that's all she wrote... as they depart higher, forever leaving their respective resistance zones. To make room for this one, we'll be selling the elephant-dog in the room $EMES. Although we may very well be selling $EMES at the bottom, we simply have to consider what the opportunity-cost is and if there's a better place to allocate that capital for purposes of hunting alpha/yield.
5/18/2017 → AS POSTED TO MEMBERS VIA MMS MOBILE & EMAIL ALERTS
BotTrigger Buy Alert: $SHOP (Shopify) bought @ $91.81 a starting position. Although we would have loved to buy this lower during a deeper correction, the trend has been too strong to ask for a 50 day moving average bounce. We can see that throughout the entire year the stock has been a buying opportunity at the 21 day moving average and followed suite with higher prices there after. Today $SHOP has squarely bounced off the 21 day moving average, up intraday from a low of $81 to up there above the $91 area. That's a huge move in one day reversing the lows. What's more, this move is happening on a record surge of volume as the highest ever. That's not retail money moving the needle, that's the big boys moving the stock. As the saying goes, if the big boys want it, we want it. For those who are unfamiliar with what Shopify does, they are the largest ecommerce website platform for businesses to sell their products/services. Their specialty is ecommerce. The similar competitors howbeit different would be Wix $WX. We're allocating 3% to SHOP here as a starting position and will be allocating another 3% onto $WIX as soon as we get positive confirmation that it's ready to bounce off it's relative low point which is where $WIX is currently at.
ORIGINAL STARTING POST → https://www.bottrigger.com/single-post/2017/05/18/Member-Trade-Alert-SHOP
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