UPDATED - August 2, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $AMZN Limit Order set to buy the January 2020 $1800 / $1810 call spread @ $5.00 for 6% allocation. MAX GAIN = $10 for a 100% gain so long as share price is @ $1810 or greater than UPON Expiration.
This position is a relatively conservative trade setup designed to loft a 2x gain on the premise that AMZN's share price trades @ $1810 or higher upon expiration. Breakeven is AMZN @ $1805 & max loss occurs if AMZN trades @ $1800 or less than. Today AMZN pretty much filled a gap that existed @ $106.25 (highlighted in yellow). Today AMZN hit an intraday low of $1808.02 so that's largely considered a tag. Filling the gap doesn't need to be exact. We'll often see stocks fill gaps a penny/change off...and sure we get gaps that over breach to the downside. AMZN is now off it's all time highs by about -11%. Historically AMZN has it's most common run of the mill pullbacks anywhere from -9 to -12% pullback is the zone where we see buy programs start to accumulate & ready a turnaround. Then there are the larger -15% pullbacks that occur. If we get down to around $1750 - $1720 area that will be the place where we'll initiate a more aggressive call spread with higher octane. For now, we view the Jan $1800 / $1810 call spread is an easy money trade. Things will get more exciting if we can get another leg down in the markets which is still very much on the table. Oversold bounce next week followed by another leg. All of which just cultivates the next set of HIGHER LOWS in this bull market
Updated - July 11, 2019
Back on November 28 of 2018 we made the case for why AMZN's -30% correctional pullback was nothing short of a massive buying opportunity and that the inevitable march back up to AMZN's all time $2000 highs was inevitable. So we modeled for rather conservative call spreads that would afford us plenty of time for that recovery to take place whilst exacting significant upside gains on a retest of those highs. The trade we largely modeled for was a 300% gain so long as AMZN was @ or above $2000 by January 2020. Here we are in the middle of Summer of 2019 and that retest has indeed occurred with AMZN now trading north of $2000.
Now our largest gainer in the portfolio is handily coming from our $AMZN call spreads. Following in 2nd AAPL, 3rd NVDA, & 4th TSLA.
Updated - January 2, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $AMZN bought the January 2021 $2800/$3000 Vertical Call Spread for $5.60 for a 2% allocation size.
MAX GAIN = $100 which is 1685% Gain so long as AMZN closes @ $3000 or higher upon expiration which is 744 days away from today on January 15 of 2021. This gives us PLENTY OF TIME to navigate through this trade. CNBC is spooning their viewers the doom & gloom Bear market rhetoric over and over. Do not be fooled. We are still in a Bull Market on the major PRIMARY TERM TREND.
Original Post - November 28, 2018
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $AMZN bought the January 2020 $1980/$2000 Vertical Call Spread for $4.75 also for a 5% allocation
MAX GAIN = $20 for a 307% gain if share price gets @ $2000 or greater than upon expiration
2nd Trade Alert: $AMZN Limit order set to buy the Jan 2021 $2800/ $3000 call-spread @ $16.50
MAX GAIN = $200 for a 1100% gain if share price gets @ $3000 or greater than upon January 2021 expiration.
BotTrigger Trade Alerts (2): We're targeting a 320% gain on Amazon simply on the premise that a retest of it's all time high of $2000/share will be revisited some time from now until January of 2020...which is 415 days away from day. We believe that AMZN's ATH (all time high) will inevitably be reclaimed & eclipsed. To get that gain we're giving this trade more than 400 days of time to pull off that recovery. The odds are that will happen much much sooner. In any case, its why we're targeting a call-spread that expires in January of 2020 with the $1980 / $2000 Call Spread.
The 2nd trade we want to put on is one that expires 2 years out and has the potential to yield more than a +1000% gain so long as AMZN is @ or above $3,000/share by Jan15th of 2021 which is 779 days away from today. Let's respect that during this correctional phase Amazon has pulled back from it's all time peak high of $2050 to a low value of $1534 for a -30.75% pullback. Anytime in AMZN's history we've seen a pullback this deep, the outcome has always been: Bottomed near that lull & then went on a rampage higher. $AMZN limit order set to buy to open the 2020 January 17th $1980 / $2000 vertical call spread @ $4.75. This trade stands to make a 321% return so long as AMZN closes @ $2000 or higher UPON January 17th of 2020...that's 415 days away from today. Breakeven = AMZN's share price would have to be @ $1984.80 UPON expiration and MAX LOSS occurs if AMZN closes @ $1980 or lower UPON expiration.
BotTrigger Trade Update: $AMZN ok we have now been filled at the following price points per call-spread.
Notice I'm not playing cat & mouse here with the bid too much. My goal is to get filled. If AMZN pullsback & retests the lows from here..THAT'S FINE. I'M UNCONCERNED WITH A PULLBACK. Could have got it cheaper, sure .... but don't try and play too cute buying the perfect bottom. The goal is to buy at / near the bottom. This is a kick-up your feet & relax trade....set the lobster trap, get filled & let AMZN do what it does best...BOTTOM - RECOVER - RETEST HIGHS - RECLAIM - ECLIPSE HIGHS. We have more than 400 days on the Jan 2020 trade & 779 days on the Jan 2021 trade. We will have plenty of time to navigate the trade if things get sour. What does sour mean in this context? It would mean that AMZN & the broader market are cultivating a massive topping pattern and that we're about to enter a bearish trend on the primary term trend. We have zero evidence of that happening right now. Instead we have an early gift from Santa that syncs up with historical seasonality...There isn't one instance in AMZN's chart where a -30 to -37% pullback post the financial crisis hasn't meant BUY
Comments