July 11 - Update
TRADE SETUP ON WATCH
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Update: $ETH we're targeting a +30% gain to be made on this next trade setup. Let me distinguish that ETH is hands down in a downtrend...when it bounced from the $204 area back on June 27, that whole bounce back up to $320 just meant that ETH was bullish on the "near-term time frame" but it was actually still in a a downtrend on the intermediate term time frame. So they are very different. There are 3 main times frames: Near Term, Intermediate Term, & Primary Term. This trade setup is to take advantage of the "near term" bounce should we see convincing power that a reversal has materialized. We're merely going to be going long for what will likely be a strong bounce very similar to the bounce from $204 to $320. This one has an upside target of around $320 to $330. Roughly a 30% gain depending on where the reversal will take place & our entry thereof. ETH right now it cultivating a reversal pattern known as a DOUBLE BOTTOM "W" pattern. These are high probability reversal patterns that statistically yield very powerful breakout moves, catalyzing a trend reversal. This was the same pattern that marked the $204 low back on June 27. Well we're seeing that same pattern show up once more here at the $180 area. The pattern is not yet complete and may not materialize, but so far we're about 75% complete on this pattern. We'll be issuing a buy alert once we see full confirmation that a reversal has sufficiently progressed.
BIG PICTURE
$ETH continues to break lower as expected and we still very much believe our downside target of $150 will be reached. We warned just yesterday that the $204 low from June 27th would likely not hold on this leg down due to confluence of bearish market breadth that was showing up in spades on several key indicators. Notably that RSI was making deeper lows on equal price & that RSI was hitting record extremes on the hourly time frame. These were shotgun warning signs that the floor was thinning out underneath that $204 support level. Whenever you see that setup, you simply STEP OUT OF THE WAY and let it resolve itself. ETH is now currently hovering by a thread around the $180 mark, you can now see how that $150 target is not very far away.
July 10 - Update
$ETH is very likely going to break much lower than the $204 low that occurred on June 27. We're not going to bottom fish for an entry on ETH here. We have zero indication of this bottoming in this area. Yes, That it's here at the $204 low where it bottomed out back on June 27 is reasonable place to bounce, and although many time assets do bounce at previous support levels....they also can very much break them and head lower. But we're not guessing here...in fact there is an overwhelming amount of evidence that the $204 support low will not hold and ETH is likely to go lower from here. We'll address why we believe ETH is likely to see much lower from here and then go over some targets:
→ First off, take notice of the RSI (relative strength indicator) here on ETH. Notice RSI value here where ETH is trading and then compare that value reading to the value that occurred back on June 27 when ETH hit a pivot low of $204. Notice that the RSI reading from June 27 was much higher in value than where it is today. So the variables to look at are PRICE & RSI values today on July 10 compared to PRICE & RSI values from June 27. When you have deeper or equal lows on price yet occurring on lower RSI values from a previous time frame...that is considered bearish. What it's showing you is that selling aggression is stronger if the RSI reading is lower. In fact in this current situation we have RSI breaking to all time deep lows on the hourly time frame.
This almost certainly means that the ultimate low is not yet here. ETH is footing for a bottom and it hasn't found it yet. We can expect a cascade affect where this will likely cause a form of bearish capitulation where you'll see massive sell orders just give up and throw in the towel...causing this to take a deeper leg down.
A break of $204 would bring ETH down to around the $150 level. The $150 level is the next fibonacci retracement value of 78.6% retracement. From peak to trough ETH topped out @ $410 area (depending on which exchange you're sourcing) and then pulled back to $204 back on June 27. That pullback came down perfectly to the 61.8% retracement value and then bounced all the way back towards $320. As ETH is still in a downtrend, the next likely zone for it to pullback to is the 78% retacement value. So if ETH hits $150 then this means it would have retraced 78% of the entire rally that got going back from March 9th. The $150 target level is the conservative downside target in this forecast.
Take a look below:
The more aggressive target sits at @ the $90 area. The measured move breakdown from losing the $204 low is calculated at $90 and change. We applied the same methodology that originally forecasted that $ETH would hit the $200 area back in mid June when ETH was trading as high as $380. We explained why ETH was very likley on it's way to $200 and hit that mark just a feathers off at $204. We'll update Members as this materializes further. We are watching.
July 7 - Update
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Alert: $ETH sold entire position @ $249.58 for a -7.4% loss. This is distinctively bad behavior. ETH is now breaking this support line from the prior pivot low of $250.66 on heavy VOLUME. That's not good. Yes it could be a fake out bear trap before heading higher but we won't bet on that scenario at this time. The accelerated volume on the break of the support line tends to mean that theirs conviction behind this move lower. What's more, we also have RSI (relative strength index) indicator that is showing a lower value here where it is now compared to where the RSI value was back on that prior low of $250.66 on July 5th. We've seen this too many times and this is largely indicative behavior of an asset class that is not done finding it's ultimate low. The rejection from that higher low tends to cascade further insecurity from the buyers holding here. And the supply glut of ETH up to top will likely make this that much harder to recover from this break. So although we may see a bounce here that takes this back up to $270. That's a big giant IF at this point. We can't sit on this hoping that it will go back up. We won't bet on hope or guesses. Those are 2 dangerous emotions. Please distinguish that we can always buy this back once we get a firm reversal. If that's a few points higher than no biggie, we'll take that trade higher only if we get confirmation that a strong reversal has occurred. What we don't want to do is be stuck holding ETH during a retest of the lows back down to $204. What if $204 doesn't hold. BTW, in a later post we're going address the entire bull & bear case scenarios on ETH & BTC & the entire cryptouniverse. There are strong points to be made about both potential outcomes. Is this a correction or the beginning of a crash will be the gist of what we'll flesh out. In the meantime, be patient and don't lose your dough.
July 6 - Original post
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Alert: $ETH Bought @ $269.55 a starting 50% allocation of ETH pie. In other words, whatever fiat that is dedicated to ETH, a starting 50% allocation of that designated capital would be placed here on this trade. For us that's a 5% of the whole crypto portfolio on ETH. 95% in fiat USDT. We will add another 5% ETH once we see this trade behave well and breakout above some key resistance levels that it still needs to get above. So we will bring our entire crypto allocaiton on this up to a full 10% of porto If acts poorly then we'll sell it. Very simple. We have a strong counter trend rally underway here with price action now making HIGHER-LOWS. This is the most important data point needed. There are some lagging indicators that are still conflicting with this reversal, that suggest that this move will be sold off. But given the price action of higher-lows, the benefit of the doubt goes to the buyers in this next cycle. We will add to this position once we get a clear break above $320. For now just 50% allocated.
